Civil War: The worst is yet to come

Today the papers are carrying some very interesting stories. In the UK there has been a memo leaked to the BBC that was written by the out-going British Ambassador to Iraq and intended for Tony Blair. This memo relays the ambassador's opinion that Iraq is slipping into a state of civil war. He expects the country to divide along ethnic and religious lines and that civil war will ensue. He states that Iraq will be a serious problem for the West for the next decade or so. But his is not the only opinion along these lines.

An article in the Washington Post today reports that two of Americas top generals both told the Senate Armed Services Committee that civil war looms in Iraq.

"The sectarian violence is probably as bad as I've seen it," Gen. John P. Abizaid, commander of U.S. military operations in the Middle East, told the Senate Armed Services Committee. "If not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move toward civil war."

The second general, General Peter Pace, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had this to say: "We do have the possibility of that devolving to a civil war, but that does not have to be a fact . . . We need the Iraqi people to seize this moment."

Pardon me, but it seems that the Iraqi people have long ago seized the moment. The invasion of Iraq was planned by people like Rumsfeld, Cheney, and Bush with the vision that the invasion would be met by the Iraqi people in the same way that the French welcomed the "liberation" of Paris. This was not to be so. The people of Iraq, many of whom were violently oppressed and suppressed by Saddam, soon seized their moment. The religious and ethnic groups quickly gathered together to comprise militias and insurgencies, and the only thing that unites them is a complete and utter distrust and hatred of the occupying forces.

The dream that a free, open, and united Iraqi democracy will somehow rise from the ashes of Saddam's tyranny is just that...a dream. But it is not a dream that the majority of the Iraqi people share.

If there is civil war...then upon whose side will the West find themselves? The Shia faction, supported by the Iranians and deeply supportive themselves of entities such as Hezbollah and Hamas, would make strange bedfellows indeed for the USA and Britain. The Sunni faction, mostly supporters of the ousted Saddam and the side most antagonistic in the current conflict, would also be an odd choice. The Kurds will draw their territorial borders and defend them against all comers.

But where will that leave the West...or will the West just leave? Where will that leave Israel?

The Israelis, who find themselves surrounded on all sides by ever more powerful and threatening nations such as a soon-to-be nuclear Iran, will have to face the fact that one day the USA and the other Western nations will just pack their tents and leave the desert. When that time comes then the real war will begin. Israel, who long ago achieved nuclear capability, will have little choice but to strike out with all it's strength to neutralize it's enemies. The West, will grow tired of sending in "Peacekeeper" troups to the troubled regions of Palestine, Lebanon, and Israel. Syria, with a Shia Iran and a Shia Iraq, both of whom will become theocracies built on the premise of martyrdom, will find itself ever more willing to follow the Iranian lead. Hezbollah, another Shia group, will gain more and more power and influence over the Labanon government and people, and Israel will be cornered as never before.

Donald Rumsfeld, whose feet rarely seem to touch ground, insists that to even discuss such things as pulling out troops and civil wars is to help our deadly enemies. He insists that if we don't stay in Iraq, and all the other little wars he has promoted, then we will one day have to fight Islamic fundamentalism on our own ground, begining with the Phillipines and Spain. This is, of course, a neoconservative spin on the old "Domino Theory" that haunted and promoted the cold war with communism.

There will be troubled days ahead.

And the war goes on..and on...and on